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U.S. and global holiday ecommerce sales should grow year over year in 2026, shaped by AI referrals, flexible payments, cross-border orders, and Amazon\u2019s fluctuating marketplace share.<\/p>\n
Since 2013, I have predicted ecommerce trends and sales for the coming holiday season. What follows are my five ecommerce predictions for 2026.<\/p>\n
U.S. online holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 will increase approximately 8% over the same period last year.<\/p>\n
Adobe reported<\/a> that consumers spent $257.8 billion online with U.S. merchants during the 2025 holiday season, up 6.8%. More recently, ecommerce purchases from U.S. sellers during the four-day June 2026 Prime Day<\/a> event increased 9.3%.<\/p>\n The National Retail Federation has not yet published its 2026 holiday forecast, but it expects<\/a> full-year<\/em> retail sales (online and brick-and-mortar) to increase 4.4%. That compares with average annual growth of 3.6% during the past 10 years, excluding the pandemic period.<\/p>\n Thus, if retail overall improves, so should ecommerce. My 8% forecast puts holiday ecommerce growth above last year\u2019s performance and above NRF\u2019s full-year retail prediction.<\/p>\n The Christmas season remains important for online merchants.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Shoppers referred from generative AI tools will convert at least 25% better than those arriving from non-AI channels during the 2026 peak shopping season.<\/p>\n In a sense, this already happened. Last Christmas, Adobe reported that AI-referred shoppers converted 31% better than traffic from other sources. On Thanksgiving Day, the advantage reached 54%, while Black Friday AI referrals converted 38% better.<\/p>\n The gap has continued in 2026. AI-referred shoppers converted 40% better than non-AI channels during the June Prime Day event, even as traffic from AI tools increased year over year.<\/p>\n The caveat is that volume is small. In the context of the total ecommerce market, AI-driven site visits are a tiny trickle.<\/p>\n Yet as more shoppers use Gemini, ChatGPT, and similar tools, conversion rates should move toward what is normal in traditional search and other channels.<\/p>\n Thus even as it reaches a broader group of consumers this holiday season, expect AI to outperform other channels in terms of conversion rates.<\/p>\n Buy-now, pay-later services will finance more than $22 billion in U.S. online purchases from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.<\/p>\n Installments are appealing during the Christmas season, when shoppers want to give generously without putting the entire cost of those gifts into a single month\u2019s budget or rack up high interest rates on a credit card.<\/p>\n Expect that appeal to push 2026 holiday BNPL U.S. spending past $22 billion for the first time, making postponed payments increasingly common<\/a>.<\/p>\n Cross-border purchases will account for roughly 20% of worldwide Black Friday-Cyber Monday ecommerce spending in 2026.<\/p>\n International shopping<\/a> is already commonplace. DHL\u2019s 2026 E-Commerce Trends Report<\/a> found that 70% of global online shoppers buy from sellers in other countries, up from 60% a year earlier, and 45% make cross-border purchases more than once a month.<\/p>\n China merchants dominate those sales. Some 59% of international shoppers buy from Chinese sellers, nearly twice the 32% who buy from U.S. sellers. Lower prices are the top reason shoppers give for buying abroad. Chinese discount marketplaces are widespread too, with 41% of shoppers using Temu, 32% Shein, and 22% Alibaba or AliExpress.<\/p>\n Those buying habits should carry into holiday shopping, pushing international purchases to roughly one in every five dollars spent online worldwide during Black Friday-Cyber Monday.<\/p>\n Third-party sellers will account for 60% or less of Amazon\u2019s worldwide units sold during the fourth quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n Marketplace sellers have recently lost a little ground to Amazon\u2019s own retail operation. Third-party sellers accounted for 62% of worldwide units sold in Q4 2024 and 61% in Q4 2025. The share fell to 60% in Q1 2026<\/a>\u00a0before returning to 61% in the second quarter.<\/p>\n Expect Amazon\u2019s own retail business to gain enough share during the fourth quarter to hold third-party sellers to 60% or less of paid units.<\/p>\n My five predictions last year<\/a> included rapid fulfillment, Canadian cross-border purchases, small-business growth, AI shopping, and consumer confidence.<\/p>\n Near-instant gratification \u2014 not enough data<\/strong>. I predicted shoppers would receive or pick up at least 35% of November and December ecommerce orders within 24 hours. Unfortunately, I cannot prove it.<\/p>\n I had expected Comscore\u2019s annual State of Digital Commerce Report to provide fulfillment-speed data, but the consultancy did not publish a 2025 edition.<\/p>\n Canadian-American relations \u2014 not clear.<\/strong> I predicted at least 55% of Canadian shoppers would make a holiday purchase from a U.S. ecommerce store.<\/p>\n Canada and the U.S. remain major trading partners, although tariff disputes<\/a> soured Canadian attitudes toward American companies and products. I found no transaction data showing whether 55% of Canadians actually bought from U.S. ecommerce sellers.<\/p>\n Small-business growth \u2014 not enough data.<\/strong> I predicted smaller U.S. online merchants would grow holiday revenue approximately 10% in 2025 to roughly $15.5 billion. I could not find a post-holiday dataset isolating that group.<\/p>\n AI shopping at 50% \u2014 correct.<\/strong> I predicted at least half of North American shoppers would use AI for holiday shopping and that AI product discovery<\/a> would become the top ecommerce traffic source.<\/p>\n Surveys differed on adoption, with Synchrony, the financial services provider, putting U.S. usage at 56% and Epsilon, the marketing and data firm, at 29%.<\/p>\n Consumer confidence \u2014 correct.<\/strong> Epsilon found average holiday spending reached $1,190, 52% above consumers\u2019 preseason expectations, while Adobe reported record U.S. online sales of $257.8 billion, up 6.8%.<\/p>\n Overall since 2013, my predictions have been:<\/p>\nAI Converts Better<\/h3>\n
BNPL Tops $22 Billion<\/h3>\n
International Ecommerce Grows<\/h3>\n
Amazon Sellers Slip<\/h3>\n
Last Year\u2019s Predictions<\/h3>\n
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